Previous 2.1 Technology Readiness Levels
Next 2.3 Recap
TRLs are still a little too technical and one-sided. Many more aspects come into play when we want to implement a technology. To look at other factors such as business, competitors, and acceptance, we will use the Gartner Hype Cycle to get a more comprehensive picture.
The Gartner Hype Cycle is a diagram with two axes: Time and expectation. Within this diagram is a curve that describes the technology’s trajectory (Figure 6). “[It characterizes] the typical progression of innovation, from overenthusiasm through a period of disillusionment to an eventual understanding of the innovation’s relevance and role in a market or domain” (17)
Figure 6 - The five phases of the Gartner Hype Cycle own illustration based on (Blosch and Fenn, 2022)
The curve is separated into five segments, each describes a distinctive phase.
“Innovation Trigger […]: The Hype Cycle starts when a breakthrough, public demonstration, product launch, or other event generates press and industry interest in a technology innovation.
Peak of Inflated Expectations: A wave of “buzz” builds and the expectations for this innovation rise above the current reality of its capabilities. […]
Trough of Disillusionment: Inevitably, impatience for results begins to replace the original excitement about potential value. Problems […] lead to missed expectations, and disillusionment sets in.
Slope of Enlightenment: Some early adopters overcome the initial hurdles, begin to experience benefits and recommit efforts to move forward. […]
Plateau of Productivity: With the real-world benefits of the innovation demonstrated and accepted, growing numbers of organizations feel comfortable with the now greatly reduced levels of risk. A sharp rise in adoption begins […]” (18)
Figure 7 - Events during the Gartner Hype Cycle own illustration based on (Blosch and Fenn, 2022)
In each phase you will find specific events that help you place your technology on the curve (Figure 7). On average it takes a technology 3-5 years to complete a whole cycle, but the timeline can go up to over ten years.**(19)** In *Figure 8* you can see the latest “Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies”.
Figure 8 - Hype Cycle für Emerging Technologies 2021 own illustration based on (Gartner, 2021)
If you want to see how the cycle developed, you can find all Gartner Hype Cycles from 2005 until 2021 here.
Gartner Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies - 2005 bis 2021: 2005
There is one more fact. The further we progress in time during the Gartner Hype Cycle, the more the area of application for a technology sinks as Michael Edelwirth explains:
“We have many technologies, some of which have a very low technology readiness level, are very early in development and only have an anticipated large potential, where they can be used. And the earlier the technologies are, the broader is often the spectrum. [...] And then there are some technologies that are very advanced where you only move forward incrementally all the time and push the envelope. For example, a titanium-based turbine blade in a gas turbine. [...] Which extracts another half percent of efficiency, saving the operator millions per year. “ (20)