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What is a trend? In fashion, trends are short-lived. Any new season there is something new. But trends can also last longer. A lot longer. If we want to understand which future trends will influence our users and the solution we create, we need to look at megatrends, like urbanization.
The Zukunftsinstitut (Future Institute) is a German think tank for trend and future research.**(22)** They define megatrends as “extremely complex change dynamics [that][…] are a model for the transformation of the world”.(23) They describe them as ubiquitous, global, and complex, with a half-life of at least 50 years.(24) In other words, they are here to stay and will influence our future.
Why do we look at them? Because our technology is also here to stay, or at least we want it to be. The solutions we work on should orient themselves around the trends that are here to stay
Trends can be rated in different ranks depending on their impact. Megatrends are only surpassed by natural evolution and climate change. They are followed by socio-cultural trends, technology trends, consumer trends, Zeitgeist and fashion trends, and micro trends.(25)
The Zukunftsinsitut has identified 12 megatrends that intersect each other at different stations. They are new work, individualization, neo-ecology, silver society, gender shift, health, globalization, knowledge culture, urbanization, mobility, connectivity, and security. You can see the whole map with each megatrends station in Figure 10.
If you want to learn more about them, click here.
Figure 10 - Megatrend map simplified version based on (Zukunftsinsitut, 2018)
Step 1: This method‘s first and only step is to explore the map. Note all the stations that could interact with your technology, and research them. As always make sure to note all the ideas you have for later
22 Zukunftsinstitut.de. 2022. Über das Zukunftsinstitut und sein Mindset. [online] Available at: <https://www.zukunftsinstitut.de/ueber-uns/> [Accessed 30 June 2022].
23, 24 & 25 Zukunftsinstitut.de. 2022. Das Megatrendsystem. [online] Available at: <https://www.zukunftsinstitut.de/dossier/megatrends/#12-megatrends> [Accessed 30 June 2022].