Previous Does the process work?

While we can not look into many of the factors we discussed, we can evaluate which technologies might result in success. Besides mapping the development state of your technology, the Gartner Hype Cycle can also help you understand at which point using the process has the greatest chance of success.

Figure 14 - Key Hype Cycle Questions own illustration based on (Blosch and Fenn, 2022)

Based on traps and risk levels during the hype cycle, Gartner has split the process into two key hype cycle questions.(**42)** The first question, “What is there that we could be using?” tells us that the technology still has not matured enough for us to see all its advantages and disadvantages. The second question, “What is here that we are not using?” and “Was that a deliberate decision?” are both questions that tell us that the technology has already been adopted and that we might be late to the party if we can not find a new angle (Figure 14). (43)

If we want to create an innovative solution based on emerging technology, we need the technology to be within the first part of the cycle. But if we want to minimize our risks when working with the technology and do not want to get surprised by new disadvantages, we need to be as close as possible to the point where the questions change. Otherwise, the technology might no longer be suitable for the technology we develop.

Therefore, we can define the sweet spot for successful results at a TRL of 4-5 or the “Trough of disillusionment” in the Hype cycle.

42 & 43 Blosch, M. and Fenn, J., 2022. Understanding Gartner’s Hype Cycles. [online] Gartner. Available at: <https://www.gartner.com/en/documents/3887767> [Accessed 30 June 2022].