Previous 4.1 Megatrend map
Next 4.4 Idea sketching
Speculative design escalates quickly but expands the imaginative space. According to Antony Dune and Fiona Raby, pioneers of critical design, it initiates discussions and allows us to dream; it does not aim to offer concrete, directly implementable solutions.(29)
Speculation itself is vague and inaccurate and can become the enemy of our process if we get lost in it. We do not want to create speculative design solutions. We want to create tangible, usable, and actionable solutions. But to get these ideas, it can help to speculate, to imagine different futures dictated by megatrends and dualities. We will not create solutions for these futures but recognize potential applications for the present.
With our technical groundwork, its interpretation, and an idea of the future, we can now create scenarios.
Step 1: Choose one of the interpretations of our pros and cons from Method 1.4 Technical Pros and Cons as well as an appropriate station on the Megatrend Map as well as a Future Duality.
Step 2: Create a collection of locations where your technology could be applied.
Step 3: Choose a location that fits your technology and a year in which your scenario takes place. You can orient yourself on the timeline discussed in Method 2.2 Gartner Hype Cycle.
Step 4: Start to write. Limit yourself to eight sentences or less. Imagine how the technology could thrive. Describe how the world looks if the technology is applied everywhere. Talk about the impact it can have and the dystopia or utopia it creates. Try not to mention specific solutions but a world filled with many different ones.
Step 5: Write around 3-5 scenarios each. If you already have ideas about solutions, park them in your notes.
Tipp: If you can not write tangible scenarios, consider to go a step back to collect more facts. It is a sign that you do not know enough yet.
29 Dunne, A. and Raby, F., 2013. Speculative everything. 1st ed. Cambridge: The MIT Press, p.160.